According to OilPrice, scientific projections indicate that 2026 will bring a significant Super El Niño weather event characterized by elevated temperatures and widespread drought conditions. Colombia is viewed as particularly vulnerable to this climate pattern, with analysts warning that severe drought could substantially reduce water levels across the country's hydroelectric facilities, curtailing power generation at a critical time.
Colombia's energy system relies heavily on hydropower, making it susceptible to drought-driven disruptions. The anticipated water scarcity would force increased reliance on thermal power plants, which already face constraints due to domestic natural gas shortages. This structural vulnerability would likely necessitate higher imports of natural gas to maintain grid stability and meet electricity demand.
The convergence of climatic pressures and supply constraints presents a multifaceted challenge for Colombia's energy sector. Rising import costs for natural gas would add economic pressure during a period of elevated energy demand, potentially affecting both industrial competitiveness and consumer electricity costs. The country's grid operators are likely already considering mitigation strategies ahead of the predicted 2026 event.